As with the equities markets themselves, complexity reigns in (and reins in) regulation.

The history of regulation is almost as old as the securities markets. Stock exchanges, then called bourses, were born in the 15th century in Burgundy’s northern trading centers.(Now Belgium. The term ‘bourse’ is from the Latin ‘purse’ and is still used for some exchanges.) The Royal Exchange, created in 1566 to compete with Amsterdam, evolved into the current London Stock Exchange.

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‘SOFT’ FACTORS

The first thing to consider about investing isn’t technical at all. EPS, P/E, P/S, MA and EMA, RSI and dozens of other indicators are all important. But start at the beginning by looking not outside, but in.

What kind of investor are you? Young with a little capital to risk but a large earnings potential over several decades? Retired, or near it, with a healthy savings but living on limited income?

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The New York Stock Exchange is not the oldest operating securities market. Though measured by total market capitalization, it’s among the largest at $12 trillion - yes that’s twelve trillion dollars. The Paris bourse goes back to 1724 and the Deutsche Boerse is even older: founded in 1585.

There is a new stock exchange in Budapest (1993) and old ones in Brazil (1890) and Australia (1837), and larger ones in Hong Kong - which trades six times the volume of the NYSE (7 billion shares per day).

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Probably you know by now that the big boys don’t play nice. In the stock market, institutional and other investors with large sums have much more influence on events than the average trader. One way they do that is through the use of something called ‘program trading’, the purchase (or sale) of a group of stocks, usually by automated buy/sell orders.

Originally the term had little to do with ‘computer program’. Program Trading got its name when index funds and other institutional investors embarked on large-scale trading to replicate a stock index. Before long, clever statistical analysts joined hands with even more clever arbitrageurs to try to ‘beat’ the market through the use of sophisticated trading algorithms, assisted by (then) new, high-speed computer programs.

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As with gamblers in Las Vegas so it is with stock investments, ‘everybody’s got a system’. The goal of research, however, is to make the activity a lot less like gambling and a lot more like investment.

For those without the time or temperament to carry out research themselves, there are full time research services available - for a fee, of course. Full-Service brokerages, such as Merrill Lynch and other large, well-established firms offer research as part of their value to clients.

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Stock picking is akin to weather prediction - no one can predict with certainty five hours from now if the price will rise or fall, much less five years from now.

Nevertheless, there are indicators that help to reduce the risk and increase the odds of profiting over the long term. After all, historically stocks have returned over 10%, as measured by the growth of the S&P 500.

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First, some statistics.

At the end of fiscal year 2005, the U.S. Federal debt was approximately $7.9 trillion. Yes, you read that correctly. That’s almost eight trillion dollars. That’s up from 930 billion in 1980, an increase of more than 849%. $4.5 trillion of that is owed to ‘the public’ - individual T-Bill and T-Bond (and other) holders, a third Japanese.

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The question in the title is misleading. Most individuals have no choice whether to use a broker, since they’re not members of an exchange. Those members (their employees, really) are the only ones who can actually execute a trade and they don’t take calls from individual investors.

They’re called Floor brokers and they’re the one’s who actually buy and sell securities on the floor of a securities exchange. You can watch them on TV waving their hands vigorously and yelling at one another.

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Once upon a time there was no Internet. OK, now take a deep breath. It’s alright because there is one now. For several decades (roughly from 1960 to 1990), large companies such as Merrill Lynch and Morgan Stanley were able to trade among themselves electronically, but these trades took place over private networks.

In 1978, the Intermarket Trading System (ITS) opened for business, providing an electronic link between the NYSE and competing exchanges, enabling brokers to access several markets. But still, only for the ‘in-crowd’.

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The question in the title might be a little unfair. After all, if share prices are inherently unpredictable (and in one sense, they are - more on that later), there’s no answer.

Nevertheless, over a period of decades the stock market has had better returns than any other investment - 8-12% depending on various factors and it’s one of the most widely studied markets on Earth. With that kind of historical data and brain power to lean on, one should be able to make a few valid observations. Well, here are some. You judge their validity.

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